First, let's take a moment and be grateful that Obliterators got a resculpt. I took a look at Terminators earlier, and decided this was going to be two posts because of the amount of math.
Obliterators, the short version - your gun is random (but not as bad as you think) - but a 24" gun is hard to hide from when it comes out of deep strike, and hard to retaliate against.
The Assumptions
I'm keeping my assumptions from last time. They are -
1) Take the Mark of Slaanesh so we can shoot twice via Endless Cacophany
2) Assume Prescience (or some other to-hit buff; Obliterators don't blow themselves up with plasma so avoiding a '1' isn't as big a deal - but you'd be silly not to bring a buff)
3) Assume we have the CP for Veterans of the Long War because +1 to wound is great
4) Legion Trait - I'm going with Alpha Legion because I run that, but I'll discuss other legion traits as well.
Obliterators Part 1 - The Gun, at a glance
In a way, this is simpler than Terminators because there's only one gun.
Fleshmetal Guns - Assault 6, S6+d3, AP -d3, Damage D3 at 24 inches.
The special rule that's going to make us all hate math in a minute is Fleshmetal guns - you drop a D3 when firing to figure out your final strength your AP, and your damage.
This means you could have S7, AP-1 shots that do one damage, OR you could get S9, AP-3, 3 damage shots, or anywhere in between.
It also means you're going to hold onto a CP to potentially re-roll one of these D3, depending on the target you're after.
On the bright side, a 24 inch range means it's much harder to screen targets - a 9" buffer zone is fine. If you want to screen out a 24" range shot, you may be looking at specialists with a "no deployment within 12 inches rule" or multiple screens and/or breaking line of sight. You also have the luxury of dropping in outside of easy charge range. If someone does charge you, each Obliterator has three S6, AP-1, 1d3 damage swings - so you CAN punch something to death, but it's a mop-up operation instead of something to rely on.
A full unit of 3 Obliterators is 385 points - which is pretty close to terminators in the previous example.
Obliterators Part 2 - On Randomness
So here's where it gets interesting - the guns are random as all get-out. Strength is 7-9, AP is -1 to -3, and damage is 1-3; you have no idea what you're getting until it happens. I absolutely advocate shooting your Obliterators first so you can keep a command point available to re-roll any of the D3 - but note that you roll the dice one after the other, so you pick strength, AP, and then damage.
Remember that on average, you'll get a '2' - so only re-roll for the max value if it really matters, because you can always drop to a '1' instead.
The D3 you're going to re-roll is going to depend on your target. I would worry about strength and damage most of all; the AP can be frustrating but you need to wound your targets, and the multi-wound fellows (IE - Primaris Marines, for example) really really want you to roll a '2' on damage - when you need multi-wound infantry dead, doing 1 damage a wound just won't cut it unless the unit has already taken a beating.
Re-rolling strength depends on your target's toughness - so it matters on T4 (S8 is your break point), T7 and T8. You'll always wound T3 on a 2+, and you'll always wound T6 on a 3+ before Veterans of the Long War (VoTLW). In a pinch, VotLW can overcome this if you're firing against multi-wound infantry.
Re-rolling AP matters if you already got the strength you want, and you don't care about damage.
Re-rolling damage really depends on the target. It doesn't matter if you're chewing up high-value single-wound targets, but once you get to heavy infantry and vehicles you REALLY want to make sure you're doing at least two damage.
My gut says that if anyone skips over Obliterators at this point, it's because doing the math hurts.
Obliterators Part 3 - The Math
The math is where things get real fun, and we break out the spreadsheets. Assuming prescience goes off, we get 15 hits. That's the last of the easy assumptions.
In order to actually provide something consumable and usable, I'm going to do math for the final outcomes - IE, what value do you need to wound a target, and what's the target's final save. We can do to-wound math easily, and once we know the final save (be it an invulnerable save, or the save after AP, cover, etc.) we know the number of wounds that went through. And if it's a single big target, we can then figure out the damage depending on our damage roll.
Obliterators when wounding on 2+
This category includes T3 infantry, OR T4 infantry with S8+, or Veterans of the Long War when you'd normally wound on a 3+
I'd say your biggest pie-in-the-sky number here is the 5+ save vs. wounding on a 2+ - that's your golden scenario vs. T8 superheavy that can pick up an invulnerable save.
A more reasonable benchmark is the 2-damage output vs. a 4+ save - on average you should still clean out two-wound primaris marines, and VotLW means you should be able to delete dreadnoughts, etc.
Obliterators when wounding on a 3+
This bin includes T4 infantry when you roll S7, T5-6 targets all the time, T7 targets when you're S8 and T8 targets when you're S9.
Assuming you can swing average AP and damage rolls with this, you can still put some solid damage (average 13.3) on something like a Knight, and still probably take out a tank.
Assuming you get two damage and so-so AP, even S7 means you can still probably nuke most or all of a two-wound T4 infantry squad unless they're in hard cover.
Obliterators wounding a on 4+
This category is slimmer - it's T7, 8, and 9 targets when you roll strength equal to their toughness.
Frankly, this table is a little disappointing - you need good AP to do decent damage to heavy targets.
age
Obliterators wounding on 5+
You should have used VotLW, or re-rolled strength if you have to hit a target that you wound on a 5+. You get 3 wounds off that, which isn't going to do a blessed thing.
What Do These Numbers Mean?
Ok, let's be real - that's a large wall of math and text to get through.
Obliterator Perks
-24" range on the gun means you can stay out of counter-charge range, if applicable, to do your damage.
-24" gun range means that the only safe place is out of line of sight
-Obliterators are durable - T5, four wounds, and a 2+/5++ mean that they can soak a LOT of bullets.
-Unlike terminators, you don't run the risk of blowing yourself up.
-From a tabletop perspective, you can actually batch roll faster because a '1' doesn't kill your model.
-Randomness of the gun means you might kick out a half-dozen S9 AP-3 three-damage shots per guy, which is HILARIOUSLY nasty
-You don't need a huge footprint to drop in on with three models, even if you do have heftier bases.
Obliterator Drawbacks
-Randomness on the gun is the major flaw here, and you have to think about whether or not it matters. Against line infantry, it's not a big deal - but you're kind of wasting yourself if you do that.
-The AP of the gun is (to me) the biggest drawback - low AP vs. hard targets (most vehicles have a 3+ save) can hamper you, and it's the roll you're least likely to end up wanting to influence.
-The strength of the gun may matter, depending on the target.
-The damage is where it can get you - rolling a '1' for damage against heavy duty targets is just wildly disappointing.
A Note on Legion Traits
Alpha Legion - your 24" range lets you drop in far enough away to benefit from the -1 to hit. If someone does charge you, you can drop 1CP for Feigned Retreat, walk away, and shoot again. You probably have the range to use Conceal as well, which means no one is shooting these guys unless they're the closest target.
Black Legion - the trait is irrelevant. You have a couple of stratagems to get re-rolls without nearby support, such as Let the Galaxy Burn - or Tip of the Spear if you ARE somehow the closest to the enemy.
World Eaters - you lose out on Prescience and Endless Cacophony. Skip unless you're die hard pure World Eaters.
Word Bearers - you don't really care about the trait. Malevolent Covenant can let you auto-pass the psychic test for Prescience and won't let someone use Deny the Witch on it.
Night Lords - you definitely aren't close enough to use the trait yourself. You can get -1 to hit vs. enemy shooting for 1CP via In Midnight Clad. Leadership 8 may make you a candidate for Prey on the Weak - getting +1 to hit is never bad.
Iron Warriors - you're (potentially) light on AP, so ignoring cover is helpful if you're going after infantry or the odd vehicle that can get cover. The Tank Hunter stratagem is good for rerolls vs vehicles.
Emperor's Children - Your legion trait doesn't really do anything. I suppose you could use Combat Elixirs to go up to T6, but that seems excessive.
Renegades - There really isn't a huge perk for the initial volley here.
In Closing
The Obliterator gun is hilariously (and obnoxiously) random - however, it's still capable of dishing out some solid pain. The benefit is that the 24" range means that it's difficult to hide from unless you're out of line of sight, and it's on a pretty durable platform.
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